Drylands

The results indicate that greenhouses and construction activities (mainly for tourist purposes) exert a strong impact on the populations of this endangered species. The habitat depletion showed peaks that constitute the destruction of 85% of the initial area in only 20 years for some populations of L. nigricans. According to the forecast established by the model, a rapid extinction could take place and some populations may disappear as early as the year 2030. Fragmentation-cadence analysis can help identify population units of primary concern for its conservation, by means of the adoption of improved management and regulatory measures.

In this paper, we propose the application of SDMs to assess the extinction-risk of plant species in relation to the spread of greenhouses in a Mediterranean landscape, where habitat depletion is one of the main causes of biodiversity loss.

We we develop a methodology predicting the expansion of greenhouses by combining a species distribution model (MaxEnt) and a simulator of land use change (Geomod).